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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:29 am 
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Celius wrote:
lidnariq wrote:
I know one person who is sufficiently good with statistics that he knows how to 1- identify which games have an expected positive return and 2- how to adjust playing to minimize the element of chance.
It is indeed possible to do this, but it's very difficult, requires a huge bankroll, a huge amount of patience, and attention to detail.
That is an accurate summary of him, yes :)


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:59 pm 
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Location: Berlin, Germany
tokumaru wrote:
Not everyone is ashamed of buying stuff at sex shops. Lots of people I know are pretty open about items acquired in sex shops.

No sex please, I'm british.

tokumaru wrote:
Wait... So you're against gambling, unless your chances are better than average?

Of course! The problem with gambling is, you always end up losing. But if I can play a game that actually has a positive return then I'm all for it. Who wouldn't be?


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:41 pm 
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Celius wrote:
WedNESday wrote:
Really? Which ones? What casino gives the player the edge?

It's not a casino that gives the player the edge, it's specific games, which are pretty hard to find these days. Certain variations of video poker yield a positive ROI when played with the perfect strategy, but you pretty much have to be a mastermind to actually execute that strategy. Most people who gamble are indeed idiots, and the house makes money on their garbage "strategies", while losing a little to the masterminds.

You might find this article interesting. It explains the perfect strategy for playing "Deuces Wild", a version of video poker widely available in US casinos (the trouble is finding a machine with the right paytable, i.e. the table showing how much you win for a given result). Also, that whole site is very interesting, and I've learned a lot from it.

WedNESday wrote:
But if I can play a game that actually has a positive return then I'm all for it. Who wouldn't be?

There are a lot of people who are against gambling for other moral reasons. People who are very religious and see gambling as "sinful" tend to frown upon it due to the greed factor. Their idea is, you shouldn't think you can just walk up to a machine and get a bunch of money for doing nothing. If you want money, you should have to work for it. I don't really want to have to work, so I'm not one of these people. I'm all for people who want to gamble for a profit. The house sure as shit isn't going to suffer. Think of it like you're transferring money from people who were willing to lose it to people who are willing to gain it :)


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:21 am 
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WedNESday wrote:
Of course! The problem with gambling is, you always end up losing. But if I can play a game that actually has a positive return then I'm all for it. Who wouldn't be?
Quote:
You might find this article interesting. It explains the perfect strategy for playing "Deuces Wild", a version of video poker widely available in US casinos (the trouble is finding a machine with the right paytable, i.e. the table showing how much you win for a given result). Also, that whole site is very interesting, and I've learned a lot from it.

Well, even if you could play a game with positive return (something I'm extremely dubious/suspectful of), it only makes sense if the ratio between income per hour and effort you have to make is higher than working.

If playing that game with positive return requires more effort than working, or if it pays less per hour, or both, then you're actually better off working than playing this game, despite the claim "heh I'm not working but still making money".


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:59 am 
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I've recently learned the joy of pachinko. I'm not really a gambler (nor do I smoke but I like to drink with good company, which is an important skill in Japan BTW) but I have fond memories of as a kid playing the slot machines on the ferry to Denmark and Finland (slot machines are illegal in Sweden but are common on ferries when going away from Sweden) and winning lots of coins. Pachinko are similarly hardly interactive gambling machines, but I now understand the joy of gambling a bit more. I only play them in my spare time when walking around in town though, being careful of not getting addicted.

They say pachinko machines used to be more generous (and the old ones required more skill as you had to load and shoot the balls manually using a spring-loaded lever), and you could win a lot if you worked hard all day and focused on one machine with good odds. Nowdays the government have put more pressure on pachinko companies by raising taxes, so they are forced to have smaller margins. So nowdays pachinko machines are quite scary and may make you spend a lot of money in a short time if you are not careful. I play mostly for the enjoyment, and for seeing all the different types of machines, as I'm seldom winning.

I'd like to try and program a pachinko mini-game some day.

Bregalad wrote:
Celius wrote:
We all have our vices. Gambling is my vice, rather than drinking or smoking.

Well I don't know but I find it ridiculous to think that if you weren't gambing you'd be automatically be drinking, smoking or something else. This is just not true. And there's plenty of people who are gambling, drinking and smoking. And we have to feed those idiots with our taxes.
Well if it's anything like Sweden (or Japan to an extent) there are high taxes on alcohol, tobacco and gambling so people who spend a lot on these are actually paying the society for their bumness. Addicted people that doesn't has a job is a big problem for the society though. In Sweden alcohol and gambling are limited to government-owned companies with monopoly (which really sucks when you need some cheap beer for a party and the only alcohol shop isn't open on weekends or after 17). In Japan it's also expensive but you can at least buy beer in about any convenience store 24/7. And Japan has nomihoudai (all-you-can-drink) which is very cheap for an inherently alcohol-resistant Swede.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:01 am 
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Bregalad wrote:
Well, even if you could play a game with positive return (something I'm extremely dubious/suspectful of), it only makes sense if the ratio between income per hour and effort you have to make is higher than working.


Hence why I haven't pursued this. Most machines that yield a positive return are low denomination, meaning the game credits are worth 5 cents rather than say, $1. It's takes way to long to build money. And even on a low denomination, it still requires a huge bankroll to play professionally. Not worth my time.

But one thing I should mention though is that most casinos allow you to play with a loyalty card that gives you free slot play on a weekly basis, and something like .1% cash back for all of your wagers, so this would increase your expected return slightly. Most people get something like $20 a week in free slot play from the casino they go to most often, but they look at how much you spend and adjust accordingly. The way the slot play works is you load it into a machine, and it must be played, but you keep what you win. I think people who play professionally really count on the loyalty rewards as part of their expected return.

Fun story about loyalty rewards. One of my really good friends is a huge gambler, and he racks up really nice rewards on his loyalty card. Since he spends and makes so much (at his business he owns), they're basically nothing to him. He actually lets me keep his card and go take the rewards off of it if he doesn't plan on using them, which is most of the time. During the summer this last year, he was getting something like $100 a week in free slot play on his card, for 3 months straight, that he wasn't using. I would take his free play and download it into a video roulette machine. I would bet $47 on red, $47 on black, $3 on 0, and $3 on double-0. If the ball landed on red or black, I would win $94. If it landed on 0 or double-0, I would win $105. These are the only two possible outcomes when betting this way. If you look at it, you're basically guaranteeing that you get 95% of your bet back every time you play. Now why would I do this? Because remember, the slot play must be played, but you can keep the winnings. So in one play, I would turn $100 in free slot play into $94 or $105 in cash, which I cashed out and kept. So yeah, I did that all summer and probably made about $1500 for doing basically nothing.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:42 am 
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Bregalad wrote:
Well, even if you could play a game with positive return (something I'm extremely dubious/suspectful of), it only makes sense if the ratio between income per hour and effort you have to make is higher than working.



No, it's not about effort, it's about enjoyment. A lot of us have hobbies that take a lot of effort and are a net loss, but provide enjoyment. I happily work on homebrew that makes me only a tiny percentage of what my other contract work pays, and is the same amount of effort.

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My games: http://www.bitethechili.com


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2019 10:11 am 
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gauauu wrote:
No, it's not about effort, it's about enjoyment. A lot of us have hobbies that take a lot of effort and are a net loss, but provide enjoyment. I happily work on homebrew that makes me only a tiny percentage of what my other contract work pays, and is the same amount of effort.

I think he meant under the assumption that you're just doing this as your only job. Some people do this full-time as their sole occupation. Otherwise, I agree; it's not always about how much you make. If you enjoy it and benefit from it even if only a little, have at it.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:12 am 
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Well, no matter whether you like it or not, the cashless society's definitely happening. Everyone's doing their part: Sweden's close to achieving it according to this article, Singapore's doing their best to follow suit according to this article... Plus, other forms of money and payments are appearing, such as cryptocurrencies; even the real estate market is preparing to be transformed by the blockchain and other similar technologies!


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:42 am 
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Just because something is happening doesn't mean it's either good or inevitable.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:55 am 
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Also it's really far to happen everywhere it seems.


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